Professor Paul Blackwell

All publications

Journal articles

• Rautiainen H, Alam M, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2022) Identification of reindeer fine-scale foraging behaviour using tri-axial accelerometer data. Movement Ecology, 10(1).
• Bannister HJ, Blackwell PG, Hyder K & Webb TJ (2021) Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections. Scientific Reports, 11(1).
• Tishkovskaya S & Blackwell P (2021) Bayesian Estimation of Heterogeneous Environments from Animal Movement Data. Environmetrics.
• Spence MA, Thorpe RB, Blackwell PG, Scott F, Southwell R & Blanchard JL (2021) Quantifying uncertainty and dynamical changes in multi‐species fishing mortality rates, catches and biomass by combining state‐space and size‐based multi‐species models. Fish and Fisheries.
• Niu M, Frost F, Milner JE, Skarin A & Blackwell PG (2020) Modelling group movement with behaviour switching in continuous time. Biometrics.
• Bronk Ramsey C, Heaton T, Blaauw M, Blackwell P, Reimer P & Scott M (2020) New approaches to radiocarbon calibration arising from statistical developments in IntCal20.
• Bronk Ramsey C, Heaton T, Blaauw M, Blackwell P, Reimer P, Reimer R & Scott M (2020) Statistical approaches and tools for IntCal20.
• Pope CA, Gosling JP, Barber S, Johnson JS, Yamaguchi T, Feingold G & Blackwell PG (2019) Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations. Technometrics. View this article in WRRO
• Michelot T, Gloaguen P, Blackwell PG & Étienne M (2019) The Langevin diffusion as a continuous‐time model of animal movement and habitat selection. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(11), 1894-1907. View this article in WRRO
• Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Chamaillé‐Jammes S & Matthiopoulos J (2019) Inference in MCMC step selection models. Biometrics. View this article in WRRO
• Wang Y, Blackwell PG, Merkle JA & Potts JR (2019) Continuous time resource selection analysis for moving animals. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. View this article in WRRO
• Adam T, Griffiths CA, Leos-Barajas V, Meese EN, Lowe CG, Blackwell PG, Righton D & Langrock R (2019) Joint modelling of multi-scale animal movement data using hierarchical hidden Markov models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. View this article in WRRO
• Michelot T & Blackwell PG (2019) State‐switching continuous‐time correlated random walks. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(5), 637-649. View this article in WRRO
• Michelot T, Blackwell PG & Matthiopoulos J (2019) Linking resource selection and step selection models for habitat preferences in animals. Ecology, 100(1). View this article in WRRO
• Spence MA, Blanchard JL, Rossberg AG, Heath MR, Heymans JJ, Mackinson S, Serpetti N, Speirs DC, Thorpe RB & Blackwell PG (2018) A general framework for combining ecosystem models. Fish and Fisheries. View this article in WRRO
• Griffiths CA, Patterson TA, Blanchard J, Righton DA, Wright SR, Pitchford JW & Blackwell PG (2018) Scaling marine fish movement behavior from individuals to populations. Ecology and Evolution, 8(14), 7031-7043. View this article in WRRO
• Hock K, Wolff NH, Ortiz JC, Condie SA, Anthony KRN, Blackwell PG & Mumby PJ (2017) Connectivity and systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef. PLoS Biology, 15(11). View this article in WRRO
• Parton A & Blackwell PG (2017) Bayesian Inference for Multistate ‘Step and Turn’ Animal Movement in Continuous Time. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 22(3), 373-392. View this article in WRRO
• Patterson TA, Parton A, Langrock R, Blackwell PG, Thomas L & King R (2017) Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges. AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis. View this article in WRRO
• (2017) Corrigendum. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8(7), 898-898.
• Spence MA & Blackwell PG (2016) Coupling random inputs for parameter estimation in complex models. Statistics and Computing, 26(6), 1137-1146.
• Niu M, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2016) Modeling interdependent animal movement in continuous time. Biometrics, 72(2), 345-324. View this article in WRRO
• Spence MA, Blackwell PG & Blanchard JL (2016) Parameter uncertainty of a dynamic multispecies size spectrum model. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 73(4), 589-597. View this article in WRRO
• Blackwell PG, Niu M, Lambert MS & LaPoint SD (2016) Exact Bayesian inference for animal movement in continuous time. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7(2), 184-195. View this article in WRRO
• Hyder K, Rossberg AG, Allen JI, Austen MC, Barciela RM, Bannister HJ, Blackwell PG, Blanchard JL, Burrows MT, Defriez E , Dorrington T et al (2015) Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management. Marine Policy, 61, 291-302.
• Jensen BJL, Pyne-O’Donnell S, Plunkett G, Froese DG, Hughes PDM, Sigl M, McConnell JR, Amesbury MJ, Blackwell PG, van den Bogaard C , Buck CE et al (2014) Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology, 42(10), 875-878.
• Langrock R, Hopcraft JGC, Blackwell PG, Goodall V, King R, Niu M, Patterson TA, Pedersen MW, Skarin A & Schick RS (2014) Modelling group dynamic animal movement. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 190-199.
• Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ & Wolff EW (2014) Bayesian layer counting in ice-cores: Reconstructing the time scale. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 63, 121-125.
• Harris KJ & Blackwell PG (2013) Flexible continuous-time modelling for heterogeneous animal movement. Ecological Modelling, 255, 29-37.
• Reimer PJ, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Ramsey CB, Brown DM, Buck CE, Edwards RL, Friedrich M , Grootes PM et al (2013) SELECTION AND TREATMENT OF DATA FOR RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION: AN UPDATE TO THE INTERNATIONAL CALIBRATION (INTCAL) CRITERIA. RADIOCARBON, 55(4), 1923-1945.
• Niu M, Heaton TJ, Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2013) The Bayesian approach to radiocarbon calibration curve estimation: The IntCal13, Marine13, and SHCal13 methodologies. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1905-1922.
• Reimer PJ, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Bronk Ramsey C, Buck CE, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Friedrich M , Grootes PM et al (2013) IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1869-1887.
• Hogg AG, Hua Q, Blackwell PG, Niu M, Buck CE, Guilderson TP, Heaton TJ, Palmer JG, Reimer PJ, Reimer RW , Turney CSM et al (2013) Shcal13 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1889-1903.
• Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ, McConnell JR, Thomas ER & Wolff EW (2012) Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals. Climate of the Past, 8(6), 1869-1879.
• Klauenberg K, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Mulvaney R, Röthlisberger R & Wolff EW (2011) Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews.
• Klauenberg K, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Mulvaney R, Röthlisberger R & Wolff EW (2011) Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(21-22), 2961-2975.
• Heaton TJ, Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2009) A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1151-1164. View this article in WRRO
• Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Ramsey CB, Buck CE, Burr GS, Edwards RL , Friedrich M et al (2009) INTCAL09 AND MARINE09 RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVES, 0-50,000 YEARS CAL BP. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1111-1150. View this article in WRRO
• Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2008) Estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 225-248. View this article in WRRO
• Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2008) Estimating radiocarbon calibration curves Rejoinder. BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 263-268.
• Blackwell PG (2007) Heterogeneity, patchiness and correlation of resources. ECOL MODEL, 207(2-4), 349-355.
• Mumby PJ, Harborne AR, Williams J, Kappel CV, Brumbaugh DR, Micheli F, Holmes KE, Dahlgren CP, Paris CB & Blackwell PG (2007) Trophic cascade facilitates coral recruitment in a marine reserve. P NATL ACAD SCI USA, 104(20), 8362-8367.
• Harborne AR, Mumby PJ, Zychaluk K, Hedley JD & Blackwell PG (2006) Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs. ECOLOGY, 87(11), 2871-2881.
• Mumby PJ, Hedley JD, Zychaluk K, Harborne AR & Blackwell PG (2006) Revisiting the catastrophic die-off of the urchin Diadema antillarum on Caribbean coral reefs: Fresh insights on resilience from a simulation model. ECOL MODEL, 196(1-2), 131-148.
• Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, McCormac G, Reimer RW, Bard E, Beck JW, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Edwards RL , Friedrich M et al (2006) Comment on "Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired Th-230/U-234/U-238 and C-14 dates on pristine corals" by R.G. Fairbanks et al. (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1781-1796) and "Extending the radiocarbon calibration beyond 26,000 years before present using fossil corals" by T.-C. Chin et al. (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1797-1808). QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(7-8), 855-862.
• Blackwell PG, Buck CE & Reimer PJ (2006) Important features of the new radiocarbon calibration curves. QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(5-6), 408-413.
• Kirkham J, Kaur R, Stillman EC, Blackwell PG, Elcock C & Brook AH (2005) The patterning of hypodontia in a group of young adults in Sheffield, UK.. Arch Oral Biol, 50(2), 287-291.
• Mumby PJ, Edwards AJ, Arias-Gonzalez JE, Lindeman KC, Blackwell PG, Gall A, Gorczynska MI, Harborne AR, Pescod CL, Renken H , Wabnitz CCC et al (2004) Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean. NATURE, 427(6974), 533-536. View this article in WRRO
• van der Plicht J, Beck JW, Bard E, Baillie MGL, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Friedrich M, Guilderson TP, Hughen KA, Kromer B , McCormac FG et al (2004) NotCal04 - Comparison/calibration C-14 records 26-50 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1225-1238.
• Buck CE & Blackwell PG (2004) Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1093-1102.
• Reimer PJ, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Bayliss A, Beck JW, Bertrand CJH, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Cutler KB , Damon PE et al (2004) IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1029-1058.
• Hughen KA, Baillie MGL, Bard E, Beck JW, Bertrand CJH, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Burr GS, Cutler KB, Damon PE , Edwards RL et al (2004) Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1059-1086.
• McCormac FG, Hogg AG, Blackwell PG, Buck CE, Higham TFG & Reimer PJ (2004) SHCal04 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-11.0 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1087-1092.
• Blackwell PG (2003) Bayesian inference for Markov processes with diffusion and discrete components. BIOMETRIKA, 90(3), 613-627.
• Johnson D, Macdonald D, Kays R & Blackwell PG (2003) Response to Revilla, and Buckley and Ruxton: the resource dispersion hypothesis. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 18(8), 381-382.
• Blackwell PG & Buck CE (2003) The Late Glacial human reoccupation of north-western Europe: new approaches to space-time modelling. ANTIQUITY, 77(296), 232-240.
• Blackwell PG & Møller J (2003) Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. Advances in Applied Probability, 35(01), 4-26.
• Blackwell PG & Moller J (2003) Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. ADV APPL PROBAB, 35(1), 4-26.
• Johnson DDP, Kays R, Blackwell PG & Macdonald DW (2002) Does the resource dispersion hypothesis explain group living?. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 17(12), 563-570.
• Walters K & Blackwell PG (2002) Group formation games with reappraisal.. J Theor Biol, 217(2), 149-157.
• Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2002) Impact of landmark reliability on the planar Procrustes analysis of tooth shape.. Arch Oral Biol, 47(7), 545-554.
• Campbell GS, Blackwell PG & Woodward FI (2002) Can landscape-scale characteristics be used to predict plant invasions along rivers?. J BIOGEOGR, 29(4), 535-543.
• Hatchwell BJ, Anderson C, Ross DJ, Fowlie MK & Blackwell PG (2001) Social organization of cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits: kinship and spatial dynamics. J ANIM ECOL, 70(5), 820-830.
• Blackwell PG (2001) Bayesian inference for a random tessellation process.. Biometrics, 57(2), 502-507.
• Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2001) Planar Procrustes analysis of tooth shape.. Arch Oral Biol, 46(3), 191-199.
• Blackwell PG & Macdonald DE (2000) Shapes and sizes of badger territories. OIKOS, 89(2), 392-398.
• Robinson DL, Blackwell PG, Stillman EC & Brook AH (2000) Methods for describing and comparing variations in tooth shape. J DENT RES, 79(5), 1206-1206.
• Settimi R & Blackwell PG (1998) Conditional simulation for moving average processes, with discrete or continuous values. STAT COMPUT, 8(2), 135-144.
• Blackwell PG (1997) Random diffusion models for animal movement. ECOL MODEL, 100(1-3), 87-102.
• Blackwell PG (1997) The n-player war of attrition and territorial groups.. J Theor Biol, 189(2), 175-181.
• Kozerski L, Krajewski P, Pupek K, Blackwell PG & Williamson MP (1997) Towards stereochemical and conformational assignment in flexible molecules using NOEs and molecular modelling. J CHEM SOC PERK T 2(9), 1811-1818.
• MANDER AP, BLACKWELL PG & CANNINGS C (1995) A RESOURCE-DRIVEN STRATEGY CONFLICT IN 2 DIMENSIONS. J THEOR BIOL, 177(1), 17-28.
• Blackwell P (1994) The efficient estimation of tail probabilities for extremes of moving average processes using conditional simulation. Statistics and Computing, 4(3), 213-218.
• Blackwell P & Bacon PJ (1993) A critique of the Territory Inheritance Hypothesis. Animal Behaviour, 46(4), 821-823.
• Blackwell P (1992) Convex hulls of selected subsets of a Poisson process. Journal of Applied Probability, 29(04), 814-824.
• Blackwell P (1992) Convex hulls of selected subsets of a Poisson process. Journal of Applied Probability, 29(4), 814-824.
• Ball F & Blackwell P (1992) A finite form for the wrapped Poisson distribution. Advances in Applied Probability, 24(01), 221-222.
• Ball F & Blackwell P (1992) A finite form for the wrapped Poisson distribution. Advances in Applied Probability, 24(1), 221-222.
• Bacon PJ, Ball F & Blackwell P (1991) Analysis of a model of group territoriality based on the resource dispersion hypothesis. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 433-444.
• Bacon PJ, Ball F & Blackwell P (1991) A model for territory and group formation in a heterogeneous habitat. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 445-468.
• BLACKWELL P (1990) Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Social Behaviour based on the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 7(4), 261-279.
• BLACKWELL PG, RENNOLLS K & COUTTS MP (1990) A Root Anchorage Model for Shallowly Rooted Sitka spruce. Forestry, 63(1), 73-91.
• Rennolls K & Blackwell P (1988) An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance. Forest Ecology and Management, 25(1), 31-58.
• Rennolls K & Blackwell P (1986) An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance.. Research & Development Paper - UK Forestry Commission, 148.
• Blackwell P & Matthiopoulos J () Joint inference for telemetry and spatial survey data. Ecology.
• Milner JE, Blackwell PG & Niu M () Modelling and inference for the movement of interacting animals. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
• Hogg AG, Heaton TJ, Hua Q, Palmer JG, Turney CSM, Southon J, Bayliss A, Blackwell PG, Boswijk G, Bronk Ramsey C , Pearson C et al () SHCal20 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CALIBRATION, 0–55,000 YEARS CAL BP. Radiocarbon, 1-20.
• Heaton TJ, Blaauw M, Blackwell PG, Bronk Ramsey C, Reimer PJ & Scott EM () THE INTCAL20 APPROACH TO RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVE CONSTRUCTION: A NEW METHODOLOGY USING BAYESIAN SPLINES AND ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES. Radiocarbon, 1-43.
• Mumby PJ, Hock K, Condie SA, Ortiz JC, Wolff NH, Anthony KRN & Blackwell PG () Response to Bode and colleagues: ‘Resilient reefs may exist, but can larval dispersal models find them?’. PLOS Biology, 16(8), e2007047-e2007047. View this article in WRRO
• Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ, McConnell JR, Thomas ER & Wolff EW () Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals. Climate of the Past Discussions, 8(4), 2477-2502.
• KOZERSKI L, KRAJEWSKI P, PUPEK K, BLACKWELL PG & WILLIAMSON MP () ChemInform Abstract: Towards Stereochemical and Conformational Assignment in Flexible Molecules Using NOEs and Molecular Modelling.. ChemInform, 28(51), no-no.
• Blackwell P, Reimer PJ, Heaton T & (and 39 others) () The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 kcal BP). Radiocarbon. View this article in WRRO

Chapters

• Spence M & Blackwell P (2014) Bayesian Inference on Individual-Based Models by Controlling the Random Inputs, The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 35-39). Springer International Publishing
• Wheatley JJ, Blackwell PG, Abram NJ & Wolff EW (2014) Bayesian Layer Counting in Ice-Cores: Reconstructing the Time Scale, The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 121-125). Springer International Publishing
• Blackwell PG () Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Overview John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
• Blackwell PG () Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Conference proceedings papers

• Parton A, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2017) Bayesian inference for continuous time animal movement based on steps and turns. Bayesian Statistics in Action (pp 223-230) View this article in WRRO
• Spence M & Blackwell P (2014) Bayesian inference on individual-based models by controlling the random inputs. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 63 (pp 35-39)
• Campbell GS, Blackwell PG & Woodward FI (1998) Modelling the role played by aided migration in the dispersal of alien plant species. KEY CONCEPTS IN LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY (pp 320-320)
• Anderson C, Blackwell PG & Cannings C (1997) Stochastic simulation of ants that forage by expectation. FOURTH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL LIFE (pp 531-538)
• Fletcher RP, Cannings C & Blackwell PG (1995) Modelling foraging behaviour of ant colonies.. ADVANCES IN ARTIFICIAL LIFE, Vol. 929 (pp 772-783)

Preprints

• Winder LA, Parsons P, Horsburgh G, Maher K, Hipperson H, Wierzbicki C, Jeffries AR, Brown MR, Fairbrother-Browne A, Denise H , Khalifa MS et al (2022) Comparison of multiple whole-genome andSpike-only sequencing protocols for estimating variant frequencies via wastewater-based epidemiology, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Spence MA, Thorpe RB, Blackwell PG, Scott F, Southwell R & Blanchard JL (2020) Quantifying uncertainty and dynamical changes in multi-species fishing mortality rates, catches and biomass by combining state-space and mechanistic multi-species models, arXiv.
• Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Chamaillé-Jammes S & Matthiopoulos J (2018) Inference in MCMC step selection models, arXiv.
• Michelot T & Blackwell PG (2018) State-switching continuous-time correlated random walks, arXiv.
• Pope CA, Gosling JP, Barber S, Johnson J, Yamaguchi T, Feingold G & Blackwell P (2018) Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations, arXiv.
• Spence MA, Blanchard JL, Rossberg AG, Heath MR, Heymans JJ, Mackinson S, Serpetti N, Speirs D, Thorpe RB & Blackwell PG (2017) Multi-model ensembles for ecosystem prediction, arXiv.
• Michelot T, Blackwell PG & Matthiopoulos J (2017) Linking resource selection and step selection models for habitat preferences in animals, arXiv.
• Parton A & Blackwell PG (2017) Bayesian inference for multistate `step and turn' animal movement in continuous time, arXiv.
• Parton A, Blackwell PG & Skarin A (2016) Bayesian inference for continuous time animal movement based on steps and turns, arXiv.
• Patterson TA, Parton A, Langrock R, Blackwell PG, Thomas L & King R (2016) Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges, arXiv.
• Langrock R, Hopcraft JGC, Blackwell PG, Goodall V, King R, Niu M, Patterson TA, Pedersen MW, Skarin A & Schick RS (2013) Modelling group dynamic animal movement, arXiv.