Professor Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Head of School
j.oakley@sheffield.ac.uk
+44 114 222 3853
+44 114 222 3853
I16, Hicks Building
Full contact details
Professor Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I16
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield
S3 7RH
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I16
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield
S3 7RH
- Profile
-
Professor Oakley obtained his BSc (1996) in Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Nottingham, and his PhD (2000) in Statistics from the University of Sheffield. He has worked as a post- doctoral research associate in both the Department of Computer Science and Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, before starting a lectureship in Probability and Statistics in 2002. He has various research interests in Bayesian statistics including uncertainty quantification for computer models, prior elicitation and Bayesian methods in health economics.
- Publications
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Show: Featured publications All publications
Featured publications
Journal articles
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12.
- Bayesian calibration of electrophysiology models using restitution curve emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2173), ---. View this article in WRRO
- Probabilistic Interpolation of Uncertain Local Activation Times on Human Atrial Manifolds. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 67(1), 99-109. View this article in WRRO
- Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic Epidemic Models. Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 33(1), 4-18. View this article in WRRO
- Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. View this article in WRRO
- Calibration of Stochastic Computer Simulators Using Likelihood Emulation. Technometrics, 59(1), 80-92. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326. View this article in WRRO
- When Is a Model Good Enough? Deriving the Expected Value of Model Improvement via Specifying Internal Model Discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125. View this article in WRRO
- Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine, 33(1), 31-45. View this article in WRRO
- A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4.
- Multivariate Gaussian Process Emulators With Nonseparable Covariance Structures. Technometrics, 55(1), 47-56.
- View this article in WRRO
- Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes : eliciting uncertainty about variances. Pharmaceutical Statistics. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Computational Biology, 11(1), e1003968-e1003968. View this article in WRRO
All publications
Books
- Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal articles
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12.
- Corrigendum: Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12, 765622-765622.
- Bayesian calibration of electrophysiology models using restitution curve emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2 : consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry.
- Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2173), ---. View this article in WRRO
- Quantifying atrial anatomy uncertainty from clinical data and its impact on electro-physiology simulation predictions. Medical Image Analysis, 61. View this article in WRRO
- Interventions to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease: a cost-effective modelling review. Health Technology Assessment, 24(11), 1-150. View this article in WRRO
- Probabilistic Interpolation of Uncertain Local Activation Times on Human Atrial Manifolds. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 67(1), 99-109. View this article in WRRO
- Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes. PLoS ONE, 13(5). View this article in WRRO
- Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic Epidemic Models. Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 33(1), 4-18. View this article in WRRO
- Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17(557). View this article in WRRO
- Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. View this article in WRRO
- History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(4), 717-740. View this article in WRRO
- Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda.. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17, 322-322. View this article in WRRO
- Calibration of Stochastic Computer Simulators Using Likelihood Emulation. Technometrics, 59(1), 80-92. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample. Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-583. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326. View this article in WRRO
- When Is a Model Good Enough? Deriving the Expected Value of Model Improvement via Specifying Internal Model Discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125. View this article in WRRO
- Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine, 33(1), 31-45. View this article in WRRO
- A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4.
- Fast efficient computation of expected value of sample information from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a non-parametric regression approach. Trials, 14(S1).
- Multivariate Gaussian Process Emulators With Nonseparable Covariance Structures. Technometrics, 55(1), 47-56.
- An efficient method for computing single-parameter partial expected value of perfect information.. Med Decis Making, 33(6), 755-766. View this article in WRRO
- View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian inference for comorbid disease risks using marginal disease risks and correlation information from a separate source.. Med Decis Making, 31(4), 571-581. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve.. J Biomech, 44(8), 1499-1506.
- Quantifying Simulator Discrepancy in Discrete-Time Dynamical Simulators. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 16(4), 554-570.
- Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 25(8), 2962-2975. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve. Journal of Biomechanics, 44(8), 1499-1506.
- Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations.. J Health Econ, 29(3), 468-477. View this article in WRRO
- The cost-effectiveness of an RCT to establish whether 5 or 10 years of bisphosphonate treatment is the better duration for women with a prior fracture.. Med Decis Making, 29(6), 678-689. View this article in WRRO
- The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389. View this article in WRRO
- Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. BIOMETRIKA, 96(3), 663-676. View this article in WRRO
- Decision-Theoretic Sensitivity Analysis for Complex Computer Models. TECHNOMETRICS, 51(2), 121-129. View this article in WRRO
- The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans. J OPER RES SOC, 60(4), 506-518. View this article in WRRO
- Modelling the expected net benefits of interventions to reduce the burden of medication errors.. J Health Serv Res Policy, 13(2), 85-91. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information: A review of methods. European Journal of Health Economics, 9(3), 251-259. View this article in WRRO
- Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach. BIOMETRIKA, 94(2), 427-441.
- A prospective hazard and improvement analytic approach to predicting the effectiveness of medication error interventions. SAFETY SCI, 45(4), 523-539. View this article in WRRO
- A systematic review and economic evaluation of alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Health Technology Assessment, 9(22). View this article in WRRO
- Estimating percentiles of uncertain computer code outputs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 53(1), 83-93.
- View this article in WRRO
- Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: A case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of established osteoporosis. MED DECIS MAKING, 24(1), 89-100.
- Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs. Biometrika, 89(4), 769-784.
- Eliciting Gaussian process priors for complex computer codes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D: The Statistician, 51(1), 81-97.
- Correction to: Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2: consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.
- Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes : eliciting uncertainty about variances. Pharmaceutical Statistics. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Computational Biology, 11(1), e1003968-e1003968. View this article in WRRO
Chapters
- Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (pp. 19-51). Springer International Publishing
- Modelling with Deterministic Computer Models, Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling (pp. 51-67). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Areas for Research, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 223-226). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 193-216). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- The Elicitation Context, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 25-31). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 121-151). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 1-24). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Multiple Experts, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 179-192). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Eliciting Distributions - Uncertainty and Imprecision, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 153-160). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Evaluating Elicitation, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 161-177). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Eliciting Distributions - General, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 97-119). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- The Elicitation of Probabilities, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 61-96). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Glossary, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 227-265). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (pp. 33-59). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Conference proceedings papers
- Simulation-based engineering design: solving parameter inference and multi-objective optimization problems on a shared simulation budget. Proceedings of 2021 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) (pp 1399-1405). Melbourne, Australia, 17 October 2021 - 20 October 2021.
- Toward a unified framework for model calibration and optimisation in virtual engineering workflows. 2019 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC) (pp 2148-2153). Bari, Italy, 6 October 2019 - 9 October 2019. View this article in WRRO
- Component-level study of a decomposition-based multi-objective optimizer on a limited evaluation budget. Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2018) (pp 689-696), 15 July 2018 - 19 July 2018. View this article in WRRO
- Applying emulators for improved flood risk analysis. E3S Web of Conferences, Vol. 7 (pp 04002-04002)
- How to Calculate Value of Information in Seconds Using ‘Savi’, the Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information Web App. Value in Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A725-A726) View this article in WRRO
- View this article in WRRO
- Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, Vol. 85(1-3) (pp 239-248)
- Bayesian Analysis of Computer Model Outputs (pp 119-130)
- Forecasting of Air Pollution at Unmonitored Sites (pp 497-500)
- A Workflow for Probabilistic Calibration of Models of Left Atrial Electrophysiology. Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC)
- An algorithm to sample an anatomy with uncertainty. 2018 Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC), Vol. 45. Maastricht, The Netherlands, 23 September 2018 - 26 September 2018. View this article in WRRO
Posters
Preprints
- Assurance Methods for designing a clinical trial with a delayed treatment effect, arXiv.
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12.
- Research group
- Grants
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Current grants, as Coinvestigator
Uncertainty Quantification in Prospective and Predictive Patient Specific Cardiac Models EPSRC Past grants, as Principal Investigator
Gaussian Process Emulators for Numerical Models INO Simulation Tools for Automated and Robust Manufacturing EPSRC Match+ Past grants, as Coinvestigator
Development of a fully Bayesian framework for the identification and estimation of subgroup effects in Randomised Controlled Trials MRC Calibration and analysis of complex models: methodological development and application to explore the impact of HAART in Africa MRC Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models 2 (MUCM2) EPSRC Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models EPSRC Coupled models: Expert judgement, emulators and model uncertainty EPSRC Simplicity, complexity and modelling EPSRC BAMRA: Bayesian approaches in microbial risk assessment (Working group) NERC Mathematics for data modelling EPSRC The probability of rapid climate change NERC The probability of rapid climate change NERC
- Teaching activities
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MAS113 Introduction to Probability and Statistics