Dr Charles Rougé, Senior Lecturer in Water Resilience, has been selected to receive the 2024 Best Research Oriented Paper award from the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management on his paper “Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast.”
This research paper investigates the effectiveness (skill) of existing forecasting methods and introduces a novel approach to assess whether improved accuracy translates to enhanced value in decision-making processes.
Big improvements in weather forecasting over recent years offer a goldmine for water management. By predicting changes in water demand and availability, these forecasts can help with floods, droughts, and allocating water resources effectively. However, how much water managers actually use these forecasts depends on their location, the specific water use and how far in advance the forecast is.
Dr Rougé said: “I am thrilled this collaborative work got this recognition. This shows the need for methods that make nuanced interpretations simpler and more accessible, in water resource engineering and beyond."
“Even though weather and water forecasts are getting better, they've mainly focused on how to use existing forecasts. This research proposes flipping the script: instead of just figuring out how to use forecasts, what if we asked which improvements to forecasts would be most beneficial to society?”
Dr Charles Rougé
Senior Lecturer in Water Resilience
The Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, published by the American Society of Civil Engineers, is a leading source of information in its field. Boasting a strong reputation and a broad scope, it covers the social, economic, and environmental aspects of water resource management. Since 1943, this monthly journal has provided a platform for researchers to share theoretical and practical advances in water resource planning, making it a valuable resource for engineers and scientists working to address global water challenges.