Dr Duncan Gillespie

All publications

Journal articles

• Squires H, Gillespie D, Kock L, Hock E, Hiscock R, Bogdanovica I, Lewis C, Robson D, Filippidis F, Langley T , Pulsford E et al (2025) Scoping of policy impacts for regulating e-cigarettes (SPIRE): findings from a data and decision analytic model mapping project. NIHR Open Research. View this article in WRRO
• Tunstall H, Wilson LB, Valiente R, Shortt NK, Angus C, Brennan A, Gillespie D & Pearce J (2025) Purchase price of tobacco in small retailers in Great Britain: the relationships with neighbourhood deprivation and urbanicity between 2016–2021. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• West R, Brown J, Shahab L, Baird H, Webb T, Squires H, Tattan-Birch H, Gillespie D, Purshouse R, Brennan A , Mazumdar S et al (2025) Annotating datasets in behavioural and social sciences to promote interoperability: development of the schema for ontology-based dataset annotation (SODA) version 1.0. Wellcome Open Research, 10, 455-455. View this article in WRRO
• Wambiya EOA, Oguta JO, Akparibo R, Gillespie D, Otieno P, Akoth C, Kamano J, Kibe P, Kisaka Y, Onyango E , Gathecha G et al (2025) Stakeholder perspectives on the barriers and facilitators to integrating cardiovascular disease and diabetes management at primary care in Kenya. PLOS Global Public Health, 5(7). View this article in WRRO
• Gillespie D, Morris D, Angus C, Wilson LB, Chen RKL, Leeming G, Holmes J & Brennan A (2025) Model-based appraisal of the potential effects of minimum pricing for tobacco in Scotland. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• Wilson LB, Angus C, Brennan A, Gillespie D, Shortt NK, Tunstall H, Valiente R & Pearce J (2025) Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2017–2021: how have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products in small retailers? Analysis at the national level and by neighbourhood of deprivation. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• Wambiya EOA, Gillespie D, Akparibo R, Oguta J, Akoth C, Otieno P & Dodd P (2024) EE565 Decision-Analytic Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Integrated Care Interventions for Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity: A Systematic Review. Value in Health, 27(12), S167-S167.
• Morris D, Angus C, Gillespie D, Stevely A, Pryce R, Wilson L, Henney M, Meier P, Holmes J & Brennan A (2024) Estimating the effect of transitioning to a strength-based alcohol tax system on alcohol consumption and health outcomes: a modelling study of tax reform in England. The Lancet Public Health, 9(10), e719-e728. View this article in WRRO
• Morris D, Gillespie D, Dockrell MJ, Cook M, Horton M, Brown J & Langley TE (2024) Potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: a cross-sectional analysis. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• Woodrow N, Gillespie D, Kitchin L, O’Brien M, Chapman S, Chng NR, Passey A, Aquino MRJ, Clarke Z & Goyder E (2024) Reintroducing face-to-face support alongside remote support to form a hybrid stop smoking service in England: a formative mixed methods evaluation. BMC public health, 24(1).
• Valiente R, Tunstall H, Kong AY, Wilson LB, Gillespie D, Angus C, Brennan A, Shortt NK & Pearce J (2024) Geographical differences in the financial impacts of different forms of tobacco licence fees on small retailers in Scotland. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• Pryce R, Wilson LB, Gillespie D, Angus C, Morris D & Brennan A (2024) Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006–2017. Drug and Alcohol Review, 43(1), 315-324. View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Wilson L, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2023) Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax policy interventions to inform health and economic impact analyses: a United Kingdom based qualitative framework analysis. International Journal of Drug Policy, 122. View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2023) Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: a rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018. NIHR Open Research, 3(26). View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2023) Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: a rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018. NIHR Open Research, 3(26). View this article in WRRO
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2023) Covariates of success in quitting smoking: a systematic review of studies from 2008 to 2021 conducted to inform the statistical analyses of quitting outcomes of a hospital-based tobacco dependence treatment service in the United Kingdom. NIHR Open Research, 3(28). View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2023) Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018 [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. NIHR Open Research, 3. View this article in WRRO
• Valiente R, Tunstall H, Kong A, Wilson L, Gillespie D, Angus C, Brennan A, Shortt N & Pearce J (2023) Simulating the impact of a fee scheme to regulate tobacco sales on retailers profits: a case study from Scotland. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation, 9(Supplement), 57-57. View this article in WRRO
• Brennan A, Angus C, Pryce R, Buykx P, Henney M, Gillespie D, Holmes J & Meier PS (2022) Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England. Addiction, 118(5), 819-833. View this article in WRRO
• Opazo Breton M, Gillespie D, Pryce R, Bogdanovica I, Angus C, Hernandez Alava M, Brennan A & Britton J (2022) Understanding long‐term trends in smoking in England, 1972‐2019 : an age‐period‐cohort approach. Addiction, 117(5), 1392-1403. View this article in WRRO
• Langley T, Gillespie D, Lewis S, Eminson K, Brennan A, Docherty G & Young B (2021) Developing logic models to inform public health policy outcome evaluation : an example from tobacco control. Journal of Public Health, 43(3), 639-646.
• Brennan A, Angus C, Pryce R, Buykx P, Henney M, Gillespie D, Holmes J & Meier PS (2021) Potential effects of minimum unit pricing at local authority level on alcohol-attributed harms in North West and North East England: a modelling study. Public Health Research, 9(4). View this article in WRRO
• Wilson LB, Angus C, Pryce R, Holmes J, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2021) Do dual purchasers behave differently? An analysis of purchasing data for households that buy both alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom.. Addiction, 116(9), 2538-2547.
• Wilson LB, Pryce R, Angus C, Hiscock R, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2021) The effect of alcohol tax changes on retail prices: how do on-trade alcohol retailers pass through tax changes to consumers?. The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care, 22(3), 381-392.
• Horton M, Perman-Howe P, Angus C, Bishop J, Bogdanovica I, Brennan A, Britton J, Brose L, Brown J, Collin J , Dockrell M et al (2021) The SPECTRUM Consortium: a new UK Prevention Research Partnership consortium focussed on the commercial determinants of health, the prevention of non-communicable diseases, and the reduction of health inequalities.
• Gillespie D, Hatchard J, Squires H, Gilmore A & Brennan A (2021) Conceptualising changes to tobacco and alcohol policy as affecting a single interlinked system. BMC Public Health, 21.
• Wilson LB, Pryce R, Hiscock R, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2021) Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013–2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?. Tobacco Control, 30(e1), e27-e32. View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Pryce R, Holmes J, de Vocht F, Hickman M, Meier P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2020) Assessing the contribution of alcohol-specific causes to socio-economic inequalities in mortality in England and Wales 2001-16. Addiction, 115(12), 2268-2279. View this article in WRRO
• Yang F, Angus C, Duarte A, Gillespie D, Walker S & Griffin S (2020) Impact of socioeconomic differences on distributional cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decision Making, 40(5), 606-618. View this article in WRRO
• Pryce R, Angus C, Holmes J, Gillespie D, Buykx P, Meier P, Hickman M, de Vocht F & Brennan A (2020) Reweighting national survey data for small area behaviour estimates : modelling alcohol consumption in local authorities in England. Population Health Metrics, 18(1). View this article in WRRO
• Holmes J, Beard E, Brennan A, Brown J, Gillespie D, Meier PS, Michie S, Stevely AK, Webster L & Buykx P (2019) Effects on alcohol consumption of announcing revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines : findings from a monthly cross-sectional survey. The Lancet, 394, S54-S54. View this article in WRRO
• Yang F, Duarte A, Walker S, Angus C, Gillespie D & Griffin S (2019) OP42 How much evidence do we have, and how much more do we need for assessing the impact of public health interventions on health inequalities? Part 1 : smoking cessation interventions. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 73(Suppl 1). View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Gillespie D, Yang F, Duarte A, Walker S & Griffin S (2019) OP60 How much evidence do we have, and how much more do we need for assessing the impact of public health interventions on health inequalities? Part 2 : alcohol brief interventions. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 73(Suppl 1). View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Brown J, Beard E, Gillespie D, Buykx P, Kaner E, Michie S & Meier P (2019) Socioeconomic inequalities in the delivery of brief interventions for smoking and excessive drinking: findings from a cross-sectional household survey in England. BMJ Open, 9(4). View this article in WRRO
• Sadler S, Angus C, Gavens L, Gillespie D, Holmes J, Hamilton J, Brennan A & Meier P (2017) Understanding the alcohol harm paradox: an analysis of sex- and condition-specific hospital admissions by socioeconomic group for alcohol-associated conditions in England.. Addiction, 112(5), 808-817. View this article in WRRO
• Brown J, West R, Beard E, Brennan A, Drummond C, Gillespie D, Hickman M, Holmes J, Kaner E & Michie S (2016) Are recent attempts to quit smoking associated with reduced drinking in England? A cross-sectional population survey. BMC Public Health, 16. View this article in WRRO
• Allen K, Gillespie DOS, Guzman-Castillo M, Diggle PJ, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2016) Future trends and inequalities in premature coronary deaths in England: Modelling study. International Journal of Cardiology, 203, 290-297.
• Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Moreira P, McGill R, Anwar E, Lloyd-Williams F, Bromley H, Diggle PJ , Capewell S et al (2015) The health equity and effectiveness of policy options to reduce dietary salt intake in England: Policy forecast. Plos One, 10(7).
• McGill R, Anwar E, Orton L, Bromley H, Lloyd-Williams F, O’Flaherty M, Taylor-Robinson D, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie D, Moreira P , Allen K et al (2015) Are interventions to promote healthy eating equally effective for all? Systematic review of socioeconomic inequalities in impact. BMC Public Health, 15(1).
• Bandosz P, O'Flaherty M, Rutkowski M, Kypridemos C, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie DOS, Solnica B, Pencina MJ, Wyrzykowski B, Capewell S & Zdrojewski T (2015) A victory for statins or a defeat for diet policies? Cholesterol falls in Poland in the past decade: A modeling study. International Journal of Cardiology, 185, 313-319.
• Bandosz P, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S, Rutkowski M, Kypridemos C, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie D, Moreira P & Zdrojewski T (2014) PP05 Are recent population declines in total cholesterol levels in Poland attributable to statin medications or dietary changes?. Oral Presentations, A49.1-A49.
• Guzman Castillo M, O’Flaherty M, Couch P, Sperrin M, Lloyd S, Soiland-Reyes C, Green B, Kypridemos C, Gillespie DOS, Allen A , Buchan I et al (2014) OP71 Comparing coronary mortality reductions by shifting the population blood pressure distribution versus improved management of hypertensive patients: modelling study. Oral Presentations, A35.2-A36.
• Gillespie DOS, Coulson TN & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) PP22 How do individual health trajectories drive population change? A mathematical decomposition of cohort ageing. Oral Presentations, A55.2-A56.
• Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Moreira P, McGill R, Lloyd-Williams F, Bromley H, Diggle P, O’Flaherty M & Capewell S (2014) PP16 Can expert opinion rapidly provide useful quantitative data on policy effectiveness and inequalities? Pilot study. Oral Presentations, A53.1-A53.
• Guzman Castillo M, Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Bandosz P, Schmid V, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2014) Future declines of coronary heart disease mortality in England and Wales could counter the burden of population ageing.. PloS one, 9(6), e99482.
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality. Demography, 51(3), 1003-1017.
• Guzman Castillo M, Gillespie D, Allen K, Bandosz P, Schmid V, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2014) Abstract P401: Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends In England And Wales: A Bayesian Age Period Cohort Forecast Up To 2030. Circulation, 129(suppl_1).
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV, Krishna-Kumar S & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) BIRTH-ORDER DIFFERENCES CAN DRIVE NATURAL SELECTION ON AGING. Evolution, 68(3), 886-892.
• Gillespie DOS, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2013) THE EFFECT OF MATERNAL AGE AND REPRODUCTIVE HISTORY ON OFFSPRING SURVIVAL AND LIFETIME REPRODUCTION IN PREINDUSTRIAL HUMANS. Evolution, 67(7), 1964-1974.
• Lahdenperä M, Gillespie DOS, Lummaa V & Russell AF (2012) Severe intergenerational reproductive conflict and the evolution of menopause. Ecology Letters, 15(11), 1283-1290.
• Nakagawa S, Ockendon N, Gillespie DOS, Hatchwell BJ & Burke T (2011) Corrections for "Assessing the function of house sparrows' bib size using a flexible meta-analysis method [Behav Ecol 18: 831-840]". Behavioral Ecology, 22(2), 445-446.
• CLEASBY IR, NAKAGAWA S, GILLESPIE DOS & BURKE T (2010) The influence of sex and body size on nestling survival and recruitment in the house sparrow. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 101(3), 680-688.
• Gillespie DOS, Lahdenperä M, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2010) Pair‐Bonding Modifies the Age‐Specific Intensities of Natural Selection on Human Female Fecundity. The American Naturalist, 176(2), 159-169.
• Gillespie DOS, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2008) When fecundity does not equal fitness: evidence of an offspring quantity versus quality trade-off in pre-industrial humans. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275(1635), 713-722. View this article in WRRO
• NAKAGAWA S, GILLESPIE DOS, HATCHWELL BJ & BURKE T (2007) Predictable males and unpredictable females: sex difference in repeatability of parental care in a wild bird population. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 20(5), 1674-1681.
• Nakagawa S, Ockendon N, Gillespie DOS, Hatchwell BJ & Burke T (2007) Does the badge of status influence parental care and investment in house sparrows? An experimental test. Oecologia, 153(3), 749-760.
• Buykx P & Hatchard J () Alcohol and tobacco tax options for the UK: A 'Syntax' project rapid review briefing.

Conference proceedings

• Tian D, Squires H, Buckley C, Gillespie D, Tattan-Birch H, Shahab L, West R, Brennan A, Brown J & Purshouse R (2025) Incorporating the COM-B model for behavior change into an agent-based model of smoking behaviors: an object-oriented design. 2024 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) (pp 252-263). Orlando, Florida, 15 December 2024 - 15 December 2024. View this article in WRRO
• Wambiya E, Gillespie D, Akparibo R, Oguta J, Akoth C, Otieno P & Dodd P (2024) DECISION-ANALYTIC MODEL-BASED ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS OF INTEGRATED CARE INTERVENTIONS FOR CARDIOMETABOLIC MULTIMORBIDITY: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 27(12) (pp S167-S167)
• Needham KJ, Tappenden P, Gillespie D & Whyte S (2023) Model-based Evaluations of the Cost-effectiveness of Interventions for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review. JOURNAL OF THORACIC ONCOLOGY, Vol. 18(11) (pp S134-S134)
• Amy J-YC, Latimer NR, Gillespie D & Chilcott J (2020) PREVALENCE, CHARACTERISTICS AND KEY ISSUES OF MODELLING TREATMENT SEQUENCES IN HEALTH ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF NICE TECHNOLOGY APPRAISALS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 23 (pp S606-S606)
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2019) Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax interventions for health in the UK: a qualitative framework analysis. The Lancet, Vol. 394(Suppl 2) (pp S51-S51). London, UK, 29 November 2019 - 29 November 2019. View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Gillespie D & Buykx P (2019) Using framework analysis deductively : a case study from alcohol and tobacco tax policy and modelling research. Myths, Methods and Messiness : Insights for Qualitative Research Analysis: Edited Proceedings of the 5th Annual Qualitative Research Symposium' (pp 30-39). Bath, UK, 30 January 2019 - 30 January 2019. View this article in WRRO

Reports

• Webster L, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2018) Smoking and the risks of adult diseases View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Henney M, Webster L & Gillespie D (2018) Alcohol-attributable diseases and dose-response curves for the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4.0 View this article in WRRO
• Webster L, Angus C, Holmes J, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Alcohol attributable fractions for England
• Webster L, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Smoking attributable fractions for adult diseases in England
• Brennan A, Buykx P, Pryce RE, Jones A, Hill-McManus D, Stone T, Ally A, Gillespie D, Meier P, Alston R , Cairns D et al () An evidence-based model for estimating requirements for specialist alcohol treatment capacity in England: The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM) Version 1.0 View this article in WRRO

Posters

• Sadler S, Angus C, Gell L, Gillespie D, Holmes J, Brennan A & Meier P Comparing socioeconomic gradients in alcohol-related harm between the four UK countries (PHE Applied Epidemiology Scientific Meeting 18-19 March 2015).

Datasets

• Gillespie D, Hatchard J, Squires H, Gilmore A & Brennan A Archived data for ‘Conceptualising changes to tobacco and alcohol policy as affecting a single interlinked system’.

Other

• Gillespie D, Webster L & Brennan A () Understanding the use of transition probabilities in health economic models of smoking: A review to support development of the Sheffield Tobacco Policy Model.

Preprints

• Wambiya EOA, Oguta JO, Akparibo R, Gillespie D, Otieno P, Akoth C, Kamano J, Kibe P, Kisaka Y, Onyango E , Gathecha G et al (2024) Stakeholder perspectives on the barriers and facilitators to integrating cardiovascular disease and diabetes management at primary care in Kenya, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Wambiya EOA, Gillespie D, Akparibo R, Oguta JO, Akoth C, Otieno P & Dodd PJ (2024) Application of decision-analytic models to inform integrated care interventions for cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A systematic review, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Cherodian R, Franklin M, Baxter S, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2024) Smoking Cessation after Transitioning from Hospital to Community Stop Smoking Services: Insights from Real-world Data Analysis, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2023) Covariates of success in quitting smoking: a systematic review of studies from 2008 to 2021 conducted to inform the statistical analyses of quitting outcomes of a hospital-based tobacco dependence treatment service in the United Kingdom. View this article in WRRO
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2023) Covariates of success in quitting smoking in the community and secondary acute or mental health care services: a rapid systematic review, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV & Tuljapurkar SD (2013) Divergence in age-patterns of mortality change drives international divergence in lifespan inequality, arXiv.