Dr Duncan Gillespie

All publications

Journal articles

• Morris D, Angus C, Gillespie D, Stevely A, Pryce R, Wilson L, Henney M, Meier P, Holmes J & Brennan A (2024) Estimating the effect of transitioning to a strength-based alcohol tax system on alcohol consumption and health outcomes: a modelling study of tax reform in England. The Lancet Public Health. View this article in WRRO
• Morris D, Gillespie D, Dockrell M, Cook M, Horton M, Brown J & Langley T (2024) The potential smoke-free dividend across local areas in England: A cross-sectional analysis. Tobacco Control.
• Woodrow N, Gillespie D, Kitchin L, O'Brien M, Chapman S, Chng NR, Passey A, Aquino MRJ, Clarke Z & Goyder E (2024) Reintroducing face-to-face support alongside remote support to form a hybrid stop smoking service in England: a formative mixed methods evaluation. BMC Public Health, 24. View this article in WRRO
• Pryce R, Wilson LB, Gillespie D, Angus C, Morris D & Brennan A (2023) Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006–2017. Drug and Alcohol Review.
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Wilson L, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2023) Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax policy interventions to inform health and economic impact analyses: A United Kingdom based qualitative framework analysis. International Journal of Drug Policy, 122, 104247-104247.
• Brennan A, Angus C, Pryce R, Buykx P, Henney M, Gillespie D, Holmes J & Meier PS (2022) Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England. Addiction.
• Opazo Breton M, Gillespie D, Pryce R, Bogdanovica I, Angus C, Hernandez Alava M, Brennan A & Britton J (2022) Understanding long‐term trends in smoking in England, 1972‐2019 : an age‐period‐cohort approach. Addiction, 117(5), 1392-1403.
• Brennan A, Angus C, Pryce R, Buykx P, Henney M, Gillespie D, Holmes J & Meier PS (2021) Potential effects of minimum unit pricing at local authority level on alcohol-attributed harms in North West and North East England: a modelling study. Public Health Research, 9(4). View this article in WRRO
• Wilson LB, Pryce R, Angus C, Hiscock R, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2021) The effect of alcohol tax changes on retail prices: how do on-trade alcohol retailers pass through tax changes to consumers?. The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care. View this article in WRRO
• Horton M, Perman-Howe P, Angus C, Bishop J, Bogdanovica I, Brennan A, Britton J, Brose L, Brown J, Collin J , Dockrell M et al (2021) The SPECTRUM Consortium: a new UK Prevention Research Partnership consortium focussed on the commercial determinants of health, the prevention of non-communicable diseases, and the reduction of health inequalities.
• Gillespie D, Hatchard J, Squires H, Gilmore A & Brennan A (2021) Conceptualising changes to tobacco and alcohol policy as affecting a single interlinked system. BMC Public Health, 21. View this article in WRRO
• Wilson LB, Angus C, Pryce R, Holmes J, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2021) Do dual purchasers behave differently? An analysis of purchasing data for households that buy both alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom.. Addiction.
• Wilson LB, Pryce R, Hiscock R, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2020) Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013–2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?. Tobacco Control. View this article in WRRO
• Yang F, Angus C, Duarte A, Gillespie D, Walker S & Griffin S (2020) Impact of socioeconomic differences on distributional cost-effectiveness analysis. Medical Decision Making. View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Pryce R, Holmes J, de Vocht F, Hickman M, Meier P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2020) Assessing the contribution of alcohol-specific causes to socio-economic inequalities in mortality in England and Wales 2001-16. Addiction. View this article in WRRO
• Langley T, Gillespie D, Lewis S, Eminson K, Brennan A, Docherty G & Young B (2020) Developing logic models to inform public health policy outcome evaluation : an example from tobacco control. Journal of Public Health. View this article in WRRO
• Pryce R, Angus C, Holmes J, Gillespie D, Buykx P, Meier P, Hickman M, de Vocht F & Brennan A (2020) Reweighting national survey data for small area behaviour estimates : modelling alcohol consumption in local authorities in England. Population Health Metrics, 18(1). View this article in WRRO
• Yang F, Duarte A, Walker S, Angus C, Gillespie D & Griffin S (2019) OP42 How much evidence do we have, and how much more do we need for assessing the impact of public health interventions on health inequalities? Part 1 : smoking cessation interventions. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 73(Suppl 1). View this article in WRRO
• Angus C, Gillespie D, Yang F, Duarte A, Walker S & Griffin S (2019) OP60 How much evidence do we have, and how much more do we need for assessing the impact of public health interventions on health inequalities? Part 2 : alcohol brief interventions. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 73(Suppl 1). View this article in WRRO
• Eminson K, Gillespie D, Lewis S, Opazo-Breton M, Bogdanovica I, Brennan A, Britton J, Wu Q, Meier P, Holmes J & Langley T (2019) OP87 A comprehensive evaluation of the impact of recent english tobacco control policy using secondary data. Oral Presentations.
• Angus C, Brown J, Beard E, Gillespie D, Buykx P, Kaner E, Michie S & Meier P (2019) Socioeconomic inequalities in the delivery of Brief Interventions for smoking and excessive drinking: Findings from a cross-sectional household survey in England. BMJ Open, 9(4). View this article in WRRO
• Sadler S, Angus C, Gavens L, Gillespie D, Holmes J, Hamilton J, Brennan A & Meier P (2017) Understanding the alcohol harm paradox: an analysis of sex- and condition-specific hospital admissions by socioeconomic group for alcohol-associated conditions in England.. Addiction, 112(5), 808-817. View this article in WRRO
• Holmes J, Brown J, West R, Beard E, Brennan A, Drummond C, Gillespie D, Hickman M, Holmes J, Kaner E & Michie S (2016) Are recent attempts to quit smoking associated with reduced drinking in England? A cross-sectional population survey. BMC Public Health, 16:535. View this article in WRRO
• Allen K, Gillespie DOS, Guzman-Castillo M, Diggle PJ, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2016) Future trends and inequalities in premature coronary deaths in England: Modelling study. International Journal of Cardiology, 203, 290-297.
• McGill R, Anwar E, Orton L, Bromley H, Lloyd-Williams F, O’Flaherty M, Taylor-Robinson D, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie D, Moreira P , Allen K et al (2015) Are interventions to promote healthy eating equally effective for all? Systematic review of socioeconomic inequalities in impact. BMC Public Health, 15(1).
• Bandosz P, O'Flaherty M, Rutkowski M, Kypridemos C, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie DOS, Solnica B, Pencina MJ, Wyrzykowski B, Capewell S & Zdrojewski T (2015) A victory for statins or a defeat for diet policies? Cholesterol falls in Poland in the past decade: A modeling study. International Journal of Cardiology, 185, 313-319.
• Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Moreira P, McGill R, Anwar E, Lloyd-Williams F, Bromley H, Diggle PJ , Capewell S et al (2015) The health equity and effectiveness of policy options to reduce dietary salt intake in England: Policy forecast. PLoS ONE, 10(7). View this article in WRRO
• Bandosz P, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S, Rutkowski M, Kypridemos C, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie D, Moreira P & Zdrojewski T (2014) PP05 Are recent population declines in total cholesterol levels in Poland attributable to statin medications or dietary changes?. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 68(Suppl 1), A49.1-A49.
• Guzman Castillo M, O’Flaherty M, Couch P, Sperrin M, Lloyd S, Soiland-Reyes C, Green B, Kypridemos C, Gillespie DOS, Allen A , Buchan I et al (2014) OP71 Comparing coronary mortality reductions by shifting the population blood pressure distribution versus improved management of hypertensive patients: modelling study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 68(Suppl 1), A35.2-A36.
• Gillespie DOS, Coulson TN & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) PP22 How do individual health trajectories drive population change? A mathematical decomposition of cohort ageing. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 68(Suppl 1), A55.2-A56.
• Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Moreira P, McGill R, Lloyd-Williams F, Bromley H, Diggle P, O’Flaherty M & Capewell S (2014) PP16 Can expert opinion rapidly provide useful quantitative data on policy effectiveness and inequalities? Pilot study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 68(Suppl 1), A53.1-A53.
• Guzman Castillo M, Gillespie DOS, Allen K, Bandosz P, Schmid V, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2014) Future declines of coronary heart disease mortality in England and Wales could counter the burden of population ageing.. PloS one, 9(6), e99482.
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality. Demography, 51(3), 1003-1017.
• Guzman Castillo M, Gillespie D, Allen K, Bandosz P, Schmid V, Capewell S & O'Flaherty M (2014) Abstract P401: Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends In England And Wales: A Bayesian Age Period Cohort Forecast Up To 2030. Circulation, 129(suppl_1).
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV, Krishna-Kumar S & Tuljapurkar SD (2014) BIRTH-ORDER DIFFERENCES CAN DRIVE NATURAL SELECTION ON AGING. Evolution, 68(3), 886-892.
• Gillespie DOS, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2013) THE EFFECT OF MATERNAL AGE AND REPRODUCTIVE HISTORY ON OFFSPRING SURVIVAL AND LIFETIME REPRODUCTION IN PREINDUSTRIAL HUMANS. Evolution, 67(7), 1964-1974.
• Lahdenperä M, Gillespie DOS, Lummaa V & Russell AF (2012) Severe intergenerational reproductive conflict and the evolution of menopause. Ecology Letters, 15(11), 1283-1290.
• Nakagawa S, Ockendon N, Gillespie DOS, Hatchwell BJ & Burke T (2011) Corrections for "Assessing the function of house sparrows' bib size using a flexible meta-analysis method [Behav Ecol 18: 831-840]". Behavioral Ecology, 22(2), 445-446.
• CLEASBY IR, NAKAGAWA S, GILLESPIE DOS & BURKE T (2010) The influence of sex and body size on nestling survival and recruitment in the house sparrow. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 101(3), 680-688.
• Gillespie DOS, Lahdenperä M, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2010) Pair‐Bonding Modifies the Age‐Specific Intensities of Natural Selection on Human Female Fecundity. The American Naturalist, 176(2), 159-169.
• Gillespie DOS, Russell AF & Lummaa V (2008) When fecundity does not equal fitness: evidence of an offspring quantity versus quality trade-off in pre-industrial humans. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 275(1635), 713-722. View this article in WRRO
• NAKAGAWA S, GILLESPIE DOS, HATCHWELL BJ & BURKE T (2007) Predictable males and unpredictable females: sex difference in repeatability of parental care in a wild bird population. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 20(5), 1674-1681.
• Nakagawa S, Ockendon N, Gillespie DOS, Hatchwell BJ & Burke T (2007) Does the badge of status influence parental care and investment in house sparrows? An experimental test. Oecologia, 153(3), 749-760.
• Valiente R, Tunstall H, Kong AY, Wilson LB, Gillespie D, Angus C, Brennan A, Shortt NK & Pearce J () Geographical differences in the financial impacts of different forms of tobacco licence fees on small retailers in Scotland. Tobacco Control.
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018. NIHR Open Research, 3, 26-26.
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D () Covariates of success in quitting smoking: a systematic review of studies from 2008 to 2021 conducted to inform the statistical analyses of quitting outcomes of a hospital-based tobacco dependence treatment service in the United Kingdom. NIHR Open Research, 3, 28-28.
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018. NIHR Open Research, 3, 26-26.
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997–2018. NIHR Open Research, 3, 26-26.
• Valiente R, Tunstall H, Kong A, Wilson L, Gillespie D, Angus C, Brennan A, Shortt N & Pearce J () Simulating the impact of a fee scheme to regulate tobacco sales on retailers profits: a case study from Scotland. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation, 9(Supplement).
• Buykx P & Hatchard J () Alcohol and tobacco tax options for the UK: A 'Syntax' project rapid review briefing.

Conference proceedings papers

• Holmes J, Beard E, Brennan A, Brown J, Gillespie D, Meier PS, Michie S, Stevely AK, Webster L & Buykx P (2019) Effects on alcohol consumption of announcing revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines : findings from a monthly cross-sectional survey. The Lancet, Vol. 394 (pp S54-S54). London, UK, 29 November 2019 - 29 November 2019. View this article in WRRO
• Hatchard J, Buykx P, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2019) Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax interventions for health in the UK: a qualitative framework analysis. The Lancet, Vol. 394 (pp S51-S51)
• Hatchard J, Gillespie D & Buykx P (2019) Using Framework Analysis Deductively: A case study from alcohol and tobacco tax policy and modelling research. Myths, Methods and Messiness: Insights for Qualitative Research Analysis: Edited Proceedings of the 5th Annual Qualitative Research Symposium' (pp 30-39). https://researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publications/myths-methods-and-messiness-insights-for-qualitati, 30 January 2019. View this article in WRRO
• Tian D, Squires H, Buckley C, Gillespie D, Tattan-Birch H, Shahab L, West R, Brennan A, Brown J & Purshouse R () Incorporating the COM-B model for behavior change into an agent-based model of smoking behaviors: an object-oriented design. Proceedings of the 2024 Winter Simulation Conference. Orlando, Florida, 15 December 2024 - 15 December 2024. View this article in WRRO

Reports

• Webster L, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D (2018) Smoking and the risks of adult diseases View this article in WRRO
• Brennan A, Buykx P, Pryce RE, Jones A, Hill-McManus D, Stone T, Ally A, Gillespie D, Meier P, Alston R , Cairns D et al (2016) An Evidence-Based Model for Estimating Requirements for Specialist Alcohol Treatment Capacity in England The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM) Version 1.0 View this article in WRRO
• Webster L, Angus C, Holmes J, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Alcohol attributable fractions for England
• Webster L, Angus C, Brennan A & Gillespie D () Smoking attributable fractions for adult diseases in England
• Angus C, Henney M, Webster L & Gillespie D () Alcohol-attributable diseases and dose-response curves for the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4.0 View this article in WRRO

Posters

• Sadler S, Angus C, Gell L, Gillespie D, Holmes J, Brennan A & Meier P Comparing socioeconomic gradients in alcohol-related harm between the four UK countries (PHE Applied Epidemiology Scientific Meeting 18-19 March 2015).

Datasets

• Gillespie D, Hatchard J, Squires H, Gilmore A & Brennan A Archived data for ‘Conceptualising the alcohol-tobacco policy system: A qualitative problem structuring methodology study to inform health economics modelling’.

Other

• Gillespie D, Webster L & Brennan A () Understanding the use of transition probabilities in health economic models of smoking: A review to support development of the Sheffield Tobacco Policy Model.

Preprints

• Wambiya EOA, Gillespie D, Akparibo R, Oguta JO, Akoth C, Otieno P & Dodd PJ (2024) Application of decision-analytic models to inform integrated care interventions for cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A systematic review, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Cherodian R, Franklin M, Baxter S, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2024) Smoking Cessation after Transitioning from Hospital to Community Stop Smoking Services: Insights from Real-world Data Analysis, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2023) Covariates of success in quitting smoking: a systematic review of studies from 2008 to 2021 conducted to inform the statistical analyses of quitting outcomes of a hospital-based tobacco dependence treatment service in the United Kingdom. View this article in WRRO
• Hock ES, Franklin M, Baxter S, Clowes M, Chilcott J & Gillespie D (2023) Covariates of success in quitting smoking in the community and secondary acute or mental health care services: a rapid systematic review, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
• Gillespie DOS, Trotter MV & Tuljapurkar SD (2013) Divergence in age-patterns of mortality change drives international divergence in lifespan inequality, arXiv.