Transforming Public Health Decisions: The PHEM-B Toolbox for Smarter, Long-Term Policy Predictions

How can we better predict the long-term impact of public health policies like smoking cessation campaigns or exercise programs?

Group of people chatting, one holding a netball.

Studies often measure outcomes over 6 to 12 months, but policymakers need to understand the longer-term costs and benefits to make informed decisions.

That’s where the PHEM-B Toolbox comes in

Led by Professor Hazel Squires, Senior Research Fellow and a multidisciplinary team of experts—spanning health economic modelling, complexity science, psychology, sociology, and behavioural economics—this groundbreaking project introduces 12 methods to better incorporate behavioural influences into public health economic models.

The toolbox provides:

  • A decision framework to help choose appropriate methods based on the problem and policy context.
  • A clear description of each method, complete with references.
  • Guidance on how these methods can account for behavioural influences.

The team also identified gaps in behavioural theories, methods, and available data, culminating in an Agenda for Further Research to push this work forward.

Hazel said: “Policy makers have to make tough decisions about where to spend. This work provides a useful resource for modellers, behavioural scientists and policy makers to identify and use appropriate methods and behavioural theory within health economic models of public health interventions, to better inform policy decisions. It can be updated as new methods are developed."

This work enables researchers and decision-makers to design and use models that can make more informed predictions, ultimately driving better public health outcomes.

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