This year we arranged for delegates to attend COP30 in Brazil both online and in-person. Dr Eleni Stathopoulou from the School of Economics followed the negotiations closely as an Official Online Observer. Here she shares her thoughts on the outcomes of the conference and the progress made since the Paris Agreement.
COP30, the annual UNFCCC Climate Summit and Conference of the Parties, was held in the Amazonian city of Belém this year with the presence of over 50,000 participants. This is the 30th Conference of the Parties since the Rio de Janeiro International Environmental Treaty was signed in Brazil in 1992 which commits the world to prevent the anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Returning to Brazil, this COP, in which I joined as a virtual delegate, attempts to deliver on emissions reductions whilst navigating the financial, scientific, political and social aspects of the climate crisis.
Ten years since the Paris Agreement
A decade ago, the Paris Agreement, a landmark international treaty on climate change was signed in Paris on 12 December 2015 by 196 parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21). Its central goal was to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Since then, nations have been setting their climate action plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) on how they will reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, updating them every five years, increasing in ambition. At the same time, countries are also assessing collective progress toward the agreement’s targets (stocktake) to identify gaps and guide future actions. These are influenced by Climate Finance where developed countries commit to mobilising funds to help developing nations transition to clean energy and adapt to climate impacts, a major point of debate and negotiations.
Where we are now
On the first day of COP30, the UNFCCC released its report on countries' NDCs for 2035. These would imply a reduction in greenhouse gases by 12%, relative to 2019 levels. While the emissions trajectory is downward, confirming the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, countries are not decarbonising fast enough since to hold global warming to 2ºC and 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, a fall of 35% and 55% respectively is required.
The two weeks of this COP where a key theme was implementation (i.e. fleshing out the ‘how’ to meet the climate targets) have had a packed agenda, key issues that divided the talks, and intense negotiations running into overtime to be able to bridge the gaps and release the “Global Mutirão”, the final decision text meaning “global collective efforts”.
While issues such as adaptation and climate finance had been expected to dominate, fossil fuels had been a defining issue at this COP. Its outcome, the “Mutirão Decision”, was approved including the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035 and the new Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), paving the way for a just transition. However, whilst the Brazilian presidency endeavoured in every way to achieve a significant result, the final agreement seemed to lack real ambition. No reference was made to transitioning away from fossil fuels, the cause of nearly three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions. Direct references to fossil fuels were eliminated from the text to meet consensus, replacing them with a package of voluntary initiatives and future processes. It remains to be seen if COP30 could be the starting point of a pathway towards the global transition away from fossil fuels in the year leading to COP31, which will be held in Turkey with Australia assuming the presidency and overseeing negotiations.
How far have we come?
COP30 carried strong symbolic significance, both celebrating the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement and bringing global climate negotiations back to their roots in Brazil. So far, real and positive impact has been achieved. Global efforts have achieved energy transformation, institutional change, and global alignment on climate risk embedding climate change into national policy agendas and showcasing progress and positive developments on commitments, investment, and finance. It is also clear however that current efforts are not keeping pace with rising risks. It is time for immediate, decisive, and transformative action to scale up and accelerate both ambition and implementation given the climate urgency since goals to limit global temperature rises are becoming increasingly unattainable.