Supported by the Nuffield Foundation, Professor Andy Dickerson and Dr Gennaro Rossi will lead a comprehensive study into how school closures affect pupil attainment and wellbeing.
Data from the Department for Education suggests that demographic shifts will lead to significantly lower pupil numbers by the 2030s. Since school funding is tied to pupil numbers, this decline is expected to trigger a wave of school closures and mergers.
Moving beyond anecdotal evidence, the research team will use the National Pupil Database to quantify how these transitions impact young people. Uniquely, the study will examine outcomes not just for the ‘displaced’ pupils who are forced to move, but also for the ‘receiving’ schools that accommodate them.
The investigation will focus on five key pillars:
- Outcomes - Tracking changes in attainment, attendance, and behaviour.
- Systemic Impact - How the arrival of new pupils affects existing learning environments.
- Timing - Whether the impact of closure varies by a child’s age or educational stage.
- Vulnerability - How factors like socioeconomic status and ethnicity influence adaptation.
- Drivers - Identifying the specific mechanisms that dictate successful transitions.
By supporting robust, evidence-based decision making, the project will help policymakers mitigate negative impacts and protect educational equity as local authorities face difficult decisions regarding school closures.
Andy Dickerson said, "School closures are much more than just an administrative or financial decision; they represent a major disruption in a child's schooling. As we face a decade of inevitable restructuring, our goal is to provide the robust evidence needed to manage these transitions effectively, ensuring that difficult decisions about school resources do not come at the cost of children’s schooling outcomes. Crucially, we must ensure that the impact of these changes does not fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable students.”
You can find out more about the project on the Nuffield Foundation’s webpage or by contacting Professor Andy Dickerson directly.
